Early modelling by Australian tech start-up Fair Supply has found that the combined direct and indirect costs of new and reciprocal tariffs could cost the Australian economy more than $15 billion.
Furthermore, Fair Supply has calculated that the worst-affected sectors would be healthcare ($1.6 billion), construction ($1.2 billion), and defence and security services ($ 960 million).
The start-up determined these figures through a tariff calculator that it developed, a world-first supply chain tariff calculator that has been designed to help businesses understand and potentially respond to these challenges.
Arne Geschke, Co-Founder and Chief Technology Officer at Fair Supply, stated that the calculator has been able to capture the true cost of the tariffs that impact businesses not just at the border but throughout the highly connected global supply chain.
“When secondary and tertiary suppliers are hit with tariffs, the resulting cost increases ripples through international supply chains- inflating costs, distorting pricing, and eroding global competitiveness,” Geschke said. “While the focus has often been on tariffs applied at point-of-entry, the real damage is further downstream.”
“These indirect costs are frequently invisible to traditional monitoring and are often passed onto Australian businesses with little control over their full supplier ecosystem. Our tool gives businesses the visibility they need to make strategic, informed decisions,” Geschke added.
Fair Supply’s tariff calculator is built on a proprietary engine that maps over 60 billion global supply chains and calculates cumulative tariff impacts across multiple tiers of international trade. It is the first tool in the world capable of fully capturing the impact of the ongoing trade war.
The calculator is also able to track how tariffs applied in one country flow through to products and materials that are eventually imported or used in Australia, giving businesses insight into real-time cost fluctuations.
A key feature of the calculator is its ability to help businesses compare the impact of tariffs across different countries, allowing them to make more cost-effective sourcing decisions. By entering the product and country of purchase, users can see where hidden tariff costs add up and explore alternative sourcing options. This makes it easier for companies to compare markets and choose the most cost-effective supplier based on current tariff conditions.
The tariff calculator is also designed to incorporate the most recent tariff announcements, including reciprocal and retaliatory measures as they are introduced.
“This real-time recalibration ensures businesses always work with up-to-date insights that reflect current global trade dynamics, enabling users to respond proactively to shifting cost pressures and avoid cost blowouts or procurement disruption,” Geschke said.
The Fair Supply Supply Chain Tariff Calculator is available both as a free version and a paid premium version which offers advanced analytics, reporting tools, integration features, and ESG overlays to support strategic decision-making at the executive level.
